House price prediction: Expert warns boom is ‘running out of steam’ – now is ‘time to buy’
Martin Roberts discusses the rise in house prices
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The housing market in England and Wales is expected to settle down over the next few months after prices were driven up over the summer months. In the run up to Christmas, house price growth is expected to slow down with house prices expected to rise by just 0.1 percent in the final quarter of 2021, according to Reallymoving’s latest house price forecast. They predict that house prices will fall by 0.1 percent in November and 1.1 percent in December.
Conveyancing quotes are also steadily beginning to decline, falling by four percent between August and September.
Reallymoving looks at the purchase price buyers have agreed to pay when they search for conveyancing quotes through their site which is usually around 12 weeks before buyers complete their transactions.
The site has predicted that the average asking price will be £335,924 by the end of the year, compared to £339,860 in October.
Double-digit year on year price rises dominated most of 2021, however, this looks as set to end with annual growth dipping into negative figures in October for the first time since August 2020.
Lack of stock is currently helping bolster house prices as the housing market adjusts to the end of the stamp duty holiday which was in place from July 2020 to the end of September 2021.
The end of the furlough scheme and interest rate rises are both incentives for buyers to buy now and secure a fixed rate mortgage deal while low cost deals remain in place.
Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving, said a steadier housing market is “welcome”, however, there are factors that could “knock consumer confidence”.
He continued: “There are a number of factors converging which could knock consumer confidence over the coming months such as the supply chain crisis, rising inflation and living costs, plus the prospect of increasing interest rates – though it’s too early to see their impact in the data yet.
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“While the reduced supply of new homes for sale is making things difficult, buyers who are ready to move now are keen to press ahead and lock in a fixed-rate mortgage deal, helping keep their borrowing costs low.
“First Time Buyers who have found themselves increasingly priced out of the market will be encouraged by evidence that the post-pandemic property boom is running out of steam, with prices falling over the final quarter in five UK regions and less competition for starter homes now that stamp duty incentives are over.
“For those who have held off making their move due to the frenzied market conditions over the last few months, now is a good time to buy and lock in a five-year fixed rate deal that will insulate them from any imminent rate rises and make it easier to ride out any short-term inflationary pressures.”
Regional house prices
According to Reallymoving, the south and Midlands will largely see house price rises in the coming three months.
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London will see prices increase slightly by +0.3 percent, the South West by +3.3 percent, the East by +1.6 percent, the East Midlands by +2.3 percent and the West Midlands by +3.2 percent.
However, the North East, North West and Scotland will see prices fall in the run up to Christmas.
The North East will see prices drop by -2.7 percent, the North West by -1.5 percent and Scotland by -3.9 percent.
Wales will see average prices set to rise by 0.9 percent from £211,798 in September to £213,809 in December.
The devolved nation has become popular with buyers working from home who are looking to live in more rural locations.
The average UK house price has risen by £25,000 in a year, according to the Office of National Statistics.
The ONS figures show that prices in London hit a new high of £526,000.
The capital recorded some of the lowest levels of growth compared to the rest of the UK this year.
Find out more from Reallymoving.
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